State of the GTC
Published on 17. Sep, 2008 ... written by ShardowRhino, Tags: Articles
by ShardowRhino … The Rhino has returned from another perilous wade into the swamp that is the official forum. I return with a particularly alarming piece of information one can find in the timecard bazaar. I know there are people that loath the trade of Game Time Codes for isk as it allows hostile corps or alliances to quickly recover their losses by throwing real life money at their problems. Regardless if you are for or against the sale of “GTC”s for isk you will likely find the article of interest as it may allow your enemies to recover even quicker then before or leave you wondering if resubbing is worth it at the moment via a GTC.
I myself have been running 1+ accounts for a year off of GTCs purchased with isk. I have bought a combination of 30 and 90 day GTCs for my 1+ accounts (actual numbers withheld due to normal eve induced paranoia;) ). I have watched the prices swing in favor of the buyer and then to the seller and back again. I have also noticed that the difference stays within + or – 50million isk. While not the most seasoned timecard bazaar inhabitant I would say that I have avoided getting ripped off but also offered the GTC seller a fair trade 100% of the time.
Onto the subject at hand, within the past week I decided it was time to recharge my 1+ accounts so I wondered to the bazaar to scope out the prices. I was shocked by what I saw. The prices of GTCs were slowly climbing up from their past maximums to obscene new heights! As most know CCP has replaced the 30 and 90 day GTC with the 60 day GTC. The 60 day GTC started its life between the old 30 day and 90 day GTC prices but eventually assumed the price of a 90 day GTC. The 90 day ran between 350mil with a “maximum” of 400mil.
I say “maximum” as those sellers attempting to squeeze another 10mil more were scoffed at and found their threads at the bottom of page 10 within the hour, in the days of the 30 & 90day GTC. I was shocked to find threads advertising 60 day GTS averaging 450mil and upwards of 500mil! All for 33% less game time then the same amount of isk would have bought you at the beginning of this year. The climb started at what is now considered to be an innocent 410mil but soon snowballed into 475 and up all within a matter of days stabilizing at 450mil.
I have seen people attempt to explain away the increase in the price of a 400mil GTC that has lost 1/3rd of its game time by pointing to the price of oil. They have also pointed to the economy over here in the United States. While the economy in the U.S. does have an effect on other markets as does the price of a barrel of oil no one seems to bring up the loss of 30 days of game time.
To be honest I cannot look at the majority of the EVE community and take anything they say about how RL markets are somehow effecting GTCs even remotely serious, not without a barrel full of salt. My experience with the market in EVE is that the mindless outnumber those of us able to do some basic math. So I take the RL economy and oil explanation and throw it out the window. I know it landed somewhere near the “I mined it so I can say how much tritanium is worth based off of what I THINK MY TIME IS WORTH!” line that is repeated by many a market reject.
The real world economy shouldn’t have such a significant role in the price of a GTC. I know many will suggest that their RL income is buying them less, as though that explains the price of a GTC today. If we were to really look at the suggestion that someone’s RL income is buying them less today then it was before the spike in oil prices and shake up in the U.S. market and ripple effect in other areas of the world, we would come to a question. That question is, ”why, in a world where you are paying more for the same or less goods do you expect that you should somehow receive MORE for your RL money in a game?”
EVE is a game, it is not some kind of alternate universe where you can go and get more for your money to sidestep the changes in prices in the real world. I cannot walk into a store today and demand that I get not just 1 shirt for the going rate of last year but also a 2nd shirt for free. I cannot do that in a market, suggesting I will receive 3 pounds of beef for the price of chicken 2 years ago. I just cannot go and make insane demands that will net me prices from before the recent price increases so I might as well start making even more insane demands just for the hell of it! Unfortunately we are all paying more for less in every aspect of our lives right now and EVE shouldn’t be the exception. Not that I would endorse a raise in subscription fees.
The reason EVE shouldn’t be the exception is because the isk people want to trade their GTCs for needs to be made. That means someone has to do something in the game to earn that isk. Since the price of oil jumped, CCP did not add anything to EVE to help people make more isk, faster. That means the time it takes to grind 400mil through L4 missions still takes the same amount of time it did at the beginning of this year. Miners did not receive a buff to their yield or additional mining laser hardpoints. Those manufacturing did not see their BPO mineral requirements shrink. Those players working the markets are still receiving the same level of profits as before. Basically making isk in EVE has not changed in volume or the speed in which it is made.
In the real world people did not get a buff to their paycheck to negate the increase of prices of the things they need. Unless you’re the CEO or owner of a business you would be laughed at in one way or another for believing you are entitled to more money because the price of oil went up or a shake up of the U.S. economy, regardless of where you are from. The work you are doing remains the same as it was before the oil price increase, you are still compensated the same even if it doesn’t buy you as much as it did before.
People should not look at EVE and suggest that the same amount of isk is going to buy you less in the RL, that would be thinking backwards. Even though it is backwards thinking, people need to keep in mind that those using isk to buy a GTC are getting less game time for the same price they used to pay for 30days more in the recent past. People looking to trade a GTC for isk should have to think that their paycheck is, just like everything else, going to get them less then before. The 30day reduction in that GTC doesn’t apply to them, instead the amount of isk they receive should be less.
I might have to put it in an extreme way for some to understand. If CCP were to dump the 60day GTC and to make a 1day GTC and only a 1day GTC, people shouldn’t expect 400+mil for that 1 day GTC. Instead they should receive 1/90th of the isk they would get for a 90 day GTC. If the price of oil were to jump, the GTC trader should receive a bit less isk, assuming the RL market were to even have an effect on EVE. No one should have any sympathy for anyone attempting to twist RL economics in with EVE to demand more isk for a GTC with 30 fewer days. Regardless of their skill in sophistry.
90 day cards went for 350-400mil, I know that from my personal experience. Others have also suggested the same lows and highs for the same GTC. We know that people are getting less for their money in the real world due to the economy and oil. We know that people are not getting buffs to their paychecks to negate the price increases on all fronts. We also know that CCP has not changed the mechanics for making isk nor the speed of doing so. We also know that CCP has left players with just the 60day GTC. So what in the world would suggest that a 60day GTC should receive the maximum price of a 90day GTC? What would cause people to believe that giving 1/3rd less should net them another 100mil over the max price of a 90day GTC?
I am left with 4 possibilities, GTC buyers, GTC sellers, gold farmers and CCP. These 4 possibilities are likely to be feeding off of each other directly and or indirectly. These 4 are the possible reasons GTC prices have reached a level that should make a level headed, clear thinking player’s head spin or at least cause them to say “WTF!?”.
I’ve already pointed out the flaws in the logic of the GTC sellers that assume they should receive more for less, at a time where RL says otherwise. So I’ll point out what is wrong with the GTC buyers. Those players that are actually buying a GTC for 450mil are screwing themselves as well as everyone else that wishes to keep their sub afloat by purchasing GTCs with isk.
By purchasing for 450 you validate that price and encourage other sellers to follow suite. 450mil becomes the average and the old high of 400mil and anything below 450 is considered low even if it is 430mil. Worst of all a new high will emerge and we see that in the “wts: 60day for 500mil” threads. If this trend continues within a months 500mil will become the new low. Anyone suggesting such thinking is crazy I would like to remind them, again, that 90days used to go for 350 with a max of 400mil, as opposed to 60days for 450.
Those looking to purchase a GTC with their isk need to realize something. Isk will always be in demand as long as there are people playing EVE. CCP has not given you new ways to make isk that is faster and easier then 6 months ago. CCP has added what some call an isk sink which is Faction Warfare. While FW did invigorate some areas of the market we have seen prices decline at the same time. This decline in prices balances out the increased demand for T1 and T2 gear and ships. I know this from personal experience.
L4 mission runners should still average anywhere from 10 mil an hour up to 15mil. Not every player looking to purchase a GTC has an army of BS flying alts, so to bring up what could be made with 1 or 2 alts is unfair to the average isk earned per hour by most players.
Mining in highsec is near pointless, mining in lowsec can be as dangerous or boring as 0.0 with less isk per hour. Mining in 0.0 can be nice or impossible depending on how your alliance is doing, anyone out there on their own is suicidal though I know a few will suggest that its possible. Again CCP has added nothing to increase the isk brought in per hour of mining.
When CCP has not introduced anything to increase your isk flow, I have to ask why in the world would you consider giving increasing amounts of it away for a GTC, especially for 30 days less? Those buying GTCs shouldn’t feel as though they are at the mercy of the GTC sellers. The GTC sellers are just as much at the mercy of the buyers as buyers are to the sellers. People need to start demanding lower prices. If no one does then we will soon consider 450mil as a cheap price as opposed to outrageous. Both sellers and buyers of GTCs need to find a happy medium. Remember, those looking for isk have only one other source for it and that source will get them banned if caught.
Those buying GTCs to trade for isk are saying that they do not wish to spend the time to grind the isk or may not have the capability to do so. There should be a premium to be paid. This all reinforces the idea that both buyers and sellers should find a medium which is fair to both sides. If such cannot be struck then those selling GTCs will find fewer players interested in trading half of a capital ship for 2 months of time, as opposed to 3 months. Soon the red gold farmers will be the only choice and we know where that will get you.
Next we have to look at the “gold farmers” and their role in this mess. Farmers are still rampant in EVE. I know I have reported some macro miners in the past and received nothing from CCP about it. This feeling of disconnect does not cause the player base to stay vigilant because they feel that they are being ignored and wasting their time by reporting such players. The fact that players can stay in NPC corps indefinitely does not help the playerbase attack this problem at the source, getting some vigilante style justice.
While the change to high sec suicide ganking isn’t necessarily bad in my book, I can see it creating a safer haven for macro miners by punishing players looking to do CCP’s job for them. Though popping a hulk is merely a pinprick it is still more then players are seeing from CCP.
“Gold farmers” will always have the advantage in isk flow over your average Eve player. If a player is running 1 mission running account it should be assumed that there are no less then 4 being run by a gold farmer. For every player operated mining barge, assume there are 4 more being run by gold farmers. If your average Joe in EVE can offer you 400mil for a GTC it took him at least 4 times more time to grind then a gold farmer. Which if you were to take a look into the “Rookie help”, channel recently you would see that 1.1billion isk is being offered for the same price as a 60day GTC.
No GTC seller should ever look at the amounts being offered by the farmers and believe they should get that much in a legit trade. Your average EVE player is always going to be at a disadvantage when going against what gold farmers are offering. If a player is looking to buy isk they need to consider the sources and the consequences of their actions. If you want a huge sum of isk but with a risk of being banned then you’ll choose to go with the farmers. If you want a legitimate trade then you need to realize you will receive a fraction of what the farmers could offer you for the same amount of RL money. It might not look like a fair trade but then again gold farmers aren’t here to abide by the EULA nor do they care if players are receiving 60days instead of 90 days of game time in a trade.
Next on the list is CCP itself. While I respect CCP for their business model of giving players free expansions while others charge you, superior customer service to that of sony online entertainment as well as constant upgrades to hardware as well as the game itself, I have a problem with how they do a few things. These problems with CCP have to do with how GTCs are traded, advertised as well as the ever present gold farmers and their “diplomatic immunity” of sorts.
First off I like the idea of being able to trade in game money to keep my sub open. However I have a problem with how it is done. As it is now anyone can start a thread suggesting they are selling a GTC for any amount of isk they wish. No one verifies that the supposed GTC even exists, prior to the creation of the thread. There is also nothing to prove to the legit players that a GTC was actually traded for the advertised price, as no one verifies the transaction actually took place. Gold farmers, greedy GTC sellers and your average asshat have the ability to artificially jack up the prices of a GTC all without ever having to purchase one.
Players looking to trade their hard earned isk for game time are left in the dark. Should we believe everything we see in the timecode bazaar or put on our tin hats and wait? Eventually players will run out of sub time and the pressure is on to make a decision, do we fuel a possibly fraudulent price increase or do we set up a long skill and hope a buddy can start a thread for us later on, since CCP doesn’t allow unsubbed accounts to post at the very least in the timecode bazaar. That is something that should also be reconsidered.
CCP needs to take the secure method a step further. Not only do we need CCP to continue the secure transactions we need a change that will kill any doubt, mistrust between GTC sellers and buyers. What we need is the timecode bazaar to be introduced into EVE’s ingame market. Instead of looking on the forum starting a thread with a limited number of daily bumps for each thread, integrate GTC trading to the marketplace. Allow players to sell a GTC the same way they would any other item in game, from missiles to minerals.
This change would allow players who are looking to sell a GTC to post and compete with each other. All the while those looking to buy a GTC with their isk will have to compete with other buyers as well. This competition on both ends will balance what a GTC is worth. Not only will up to date prices be shown but players can then look at the prices a GTC was going for a few months back and find a true average, this will without a doubt promote a fair trade between sellers and buyers of GTCs. Of course GTCs on the market would need to be global as opposed to region wide, doing such will help avoid adding to the likes of Jita in some form or another.
In order for a player to sell a GTC they must first purchase one and verify said purchase with CCP before they can put it on the market. By forcing players to verify that they do in fact own a GTC we avoid the possibility of false threads working to raise the average going rate of a GTC of X amount of days. I believe by doing such will help keep the isk price of a GTC in check. It will be the death of “wts 60day gtc for 500mil” threads with 20 people supposedly lined up to jump on such an obscene price, with their alts of course.
While integrating the bazaar with the in game market will take a while there are things CCP can do to help remedy the situation sooner. CCP needs to force players to choose 1 character on their account to use in the forum. If there is anything CCP can actually learn from the much maligned sony online entertainment operation is that forcing players to choose 1 name per account regardless of number of alts on said account is a good thing. It reduces the amount of trolling, flaming and bsing done on the forum. Players are forced to either go with an unknown alt and never have a word they said attributed to their main or risk their main starting some shit their corp can’t handle, by running their mouth on the forums. CCP Force players to make a choice.
Even though there are many players with 2 or more accounts, forcing them to choose 1 character per account reduces the number of alts posting on the forum by 2 per account. If we were to take the average number of accounts logged into Tranquility at any given time and multiply that by 3 we would end up with a total of 45,000+ possible alts. 45,000 alts capable of posting on the forum is a large amount! I know there are many more accounts then 15k and the number of alts able to post as things are now is staggering. It is this massive number of alts capable of posting that can be used to artificially raise the prices of GTCs either by gold farmers or dirty GTC sellers. This of course ignores the fact that players can recycle 2 of their alts in 24 hours per account further increasing the number of possible false sellers and buyers.
In addition to this CCP could and should help the players regulate gold farmers. CCP should always do everything it can to find and ban those going against the EULA but they should allow players to wardec obvious macro miners. Not everyone will like this idea, especially solo players but CCP should make a player’s stay in an NPC corp a temporary one. Players should have the option of staying in an NPC corp for 3 to 6 months, no more, the entire lifetime of the account. After their stay has run its course players are released into the world on their own as free agents. They can always choose to stay solo or join a player corp. Nothing would change when it comes to joining a player corp except they become free agents again if they decide to leave. As a free agent players are seen as 1 man corporations by Concord and all game rules are adjusted accordingly.
This free agent, 1 man corp, idea would change the game for macro miners without a doubt. While it might sting those solo players with a big mouth the majority of those affected will be tied to illegal isk sales. Players will then be able to wardec these players without interference from concord or worrying about their sec rating. This will force gold farmers to constantly be on the move or see their ship losses starting to stack up and their time outside of a station decreased. The long term effect will be a reduction in gold farmers operating in EVE as they find its difficulty infinitely harder then dealing with an ore thief. The illegal isk will soon start to dry up until the farmers realize they should move along to the likes of wow to make their living instead.
In the end I believe that there is a problem with the current prices in GTCs as well as how they are traded. I believe both sellers and buyers have their part in it as well as gold farmers but most of all, CCP. While it is hard to blame just 1 party over the other it is CCP that has control of the game, not the players. If CCP is truly interested in protecting its bottom line from gold farmers as well as loss of subscriptions, they need to take a good hard look at how GTCs are traded, the kinds of GTCs available and possibly the pricing for EU players as well. It is one thing to talk about it, it is another to take action. Unlike sony online I believe that CCP will take action to fix the problem, the question is how long will it take them? How many players will let their 2nd or 3rd accounts slip into oblivion before we see changes needed to assure both sides of the GTC are getting a fair trade?
14 Responses to “State of the GTC”
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rantuket: great write up! looking forward to the remainin...
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Edward Sarum
17. Sep, 2008
Your article while well written is basically one large whine. At no time is a player promised a set price for an ingame item. What you are seeing is a free economy in it’s truest since.
The price of a GTC is what the market will bear and nothing else. Is no one was willing to pay the higher price then the price would drop, plain and simple.
There is no FAIR price for the selling of a GTC, think about it, this is a game, the card is sold with imaginary money, how do you determine fair. Also what is fair to you might not be fair to the seller, perhaps he things he should get more for his real world cash, after all he did not “play” to earn it.
The way to deal with this is simple, if you find the GTC prices to high do not buy them, make a choice. If the price is worth it to you then great, if not then move along. If this means you have to drop some accounts then either pony up your money for the accounts, pay the isk or drop them. You do not have a “right” to an account unless you pay for it.
In the end this is a whiner thread not a serious article which is just sad to see on a reputable site.
Havohej
18. Sep, 2008
Hm. While it may be obvious that SR’s opinion on the matter is negative, it should be kept in mind that it is just that: an opinion. Don’t let an editorial piece color your opinion of the site as a whole – in the future, as EVE-Mag.com builds a larger stable of contributors, you will see more true news items based on objective reporting of fact (possibly even some interviews) as well as editorial opinion pieces representing an entirely different viewpoint than we’ve seen so far from the current EVE-Mag.com writers.
The TL;DR version is: it’s an OPED piece mate, treat it as such
ShardowRhino
18. Sep, 2008
Actually it seems as though you did not read the entire article, especially if your suggesting that it is just a “whine thread”. The idea that the gtc bazaar is some how a “free market in its truest form” is completely off. There is nothing to prevent fraudulent threads and “purchases” being made by alts. As I said in the article,which you appear not to have fully read, is that there is no way for you nor I to determine if the thread is in fact legit.
Without CCP requiring the person starting a thread to advertise a GTC for sale to verify the time code, there is nothing to stop people from making false threads. I can go into the bazaar and make threads advertising a GTC with a huge price tag and use several alts to “purchase” those imaginary GTCs.
If you really understood the idea of a “free market economy” you would realize that fraud should not have a place. Consider any goods you buy in RL, if the price seems to be to high you can check another shop to verify if that is truly the average going rate. If shop “A” were to sell goods “1″ for $10 and you suspect that goods 1 should cost $5 you can go to any number of shops to compare. Price gougers would be discovered and lose business quickly or attempt to make amends by dropping their asking price for the goods.
As the Bazaar is now, all we have to go on is threads and the posts within them in an attempt to find what the average going rate is. Since there is currently no checks and balances in place to prevent fraud there can be any number of fake threads pushing the price of the gtc up. IF I were to advertise a GTC for 500mil and used 10 alts to “buy” the over priced GTC, the next seller will believe that selling at 450 is a steal. since the other guy got 500mil for his and with a large reaction it reinforces the idea that 450 is a bargin. The same is true for buyers of GTCs, if there are enough 500mil threads with large responses a GTC at 450 seems like a steal and the best possible price.
IF CCP went a few steps beyond what is current in place we would ALL know that there was in fact a GTC purchased prior to the creation of the thread. We would also know that the GTC was in fact purchased for X amount of isk. This would rip out what could be a large sum of false threads and purchases. Only from that point on could we actually say that it is a “free market” working as intended.
The idea of simply not purchasing a GTC is of course an option. However that option in no way works to prevent false sale threads and false purchases from corrupting the GTC market. I believe that allow people to both directly and indirectly take over and destroy a part of the product that is EVE would be negligent. Many fans do in fact rely upon a GTC trade to keep their subs up and running for a myriad of reasons I won’t even bother trying to list.
I could have gone into the aspect of the GTC trade that covers how many hours of work it would take someone to earn the money needed to purchase a gtc. Then compare it to the number of hours it takes to grind X amount of isk in game using 1 to 2 accounts. The difference would be massive for most of the Western world. The price of a GTC at 350mil would still take many times more hours to grind the isk then someone to work for the money needed to purchase the GTC. Yes isk is “imaginary money” but the time and effort put into it is not. You suggest you know what a free market is yet you do not realize the value of a person’s time and effort? People do not simply “imagine” isk growing in their wallet. Even though it is a game they do need to do something to get that isk to trade for a GTC.
You can consider this to be nothing but a whine thread but then again I have a hard time taking your response to be truly serious. I appreciate the time spent on responding as well as visiting the site and reading the article,regardless of the amount you did read. However I believe you have missed many of the points made and decided to merely close your eyes on the subject as opposed to seriously considering what was said. A free market does in fact have rules and regulations, GTC trades however do not have such beyond a safe transaction. You would be probably be mad if you purchased an apple at $5 because every other store was selling for $5, only to find out that price was based off of phantom apples that never existed at a vendor that also didn’t exist. I want a safe and secure method for selling and buying GTCs from start to finish,not just the transfer of isk. I want what you suggest the bazaar to be, a free market working correctly.
~Rhino
Nomad
18. Sep, 2008
“Your article while well written is basically one large whine.”
I agree. Look at it this way… if there was ONE single GTC seller selling ONE single GTC a day… and 10,000 GTC buyers… you still think it’s unfair to pay 500M for one? I think it will go for about 10B ISK!
That’s an OVERSTATEMENT… but, the idea is similar. There aren’t enough GTC sellers and a boat load of buyers! WHAT DO YOU EXPECT!?!?!
ShardowRhino
18. Sep, 2008
Unfortunately CCP does not have a method put in place for the players to quickly look at the number of GTCs being moved per day,week or month as well as the history for as far back as last year. That leaves us to eyeball the bazaar and see just how many threads there are selling GTCs vs number of buyers. To me it appears that there is a fairly close number of sellers to buyers.
Unless you are willing to go back to the bazaar section of the forum and count specifically how many gtcs are being sold and compare that to buyers your claim that there is far more buyers to sellers is your opinion. An opinion that appears to be far off the mark. Your overstatement in no way supports your claim as there appears to be just as many buyers and sellers as 6 months ago.
IF there is a reason why there appears to be more buyers then sellers it is due to the massive increase in the asking price for a GTC, again a GTC with 30days less but up to 100mil more then before. People tend to not like getting ripped off so if someone is offering a GTC for 500 there are going to be fewer people buying at that rate then say 400mil. So the threads offering for less then 500mil are going to be flooded giving some people the idea that there are far more buyers then sellers. Lower the prices down to 400 or below and you will find that there is a far better balance of those looking to buy and sell GTCs.
Even if there were more buyers then sellers, the sellers are profiting right now but in the long run will be killing themselves. People are going to be letting additional accounts go inactive due to the high prices of a gtc. When that happens demand is going to plummet which will cause the sellers to drop their prices. However the would be buyers will have lost a good percentage of their isk making capabilities by then thus negating the price cut to that of a 60 day gtc.
Haks'he Lirky
18. Sep, 2008
One thing I do not understand.
You throw the economy argument out the window and then go on a wild goose chase that I do not understand.
The main reason the GTC prices is rising is the simple fact that fewer people are selling them, there are 10 threads with WTB to each WTS and sometimes more. When that is the situation the WTS’ers will slowly raise their prices until someone ignores them. Heck people that are selling would be stupid not to increase the price while people are paying.
It’s all simple supply and demand mechanics.
If the Demand lowers due to accounts going inactive, or the Supply increases due to more people wanting in on the 550m isk per code action, then the price will naturally lower it self.
When the Economy gets better, and it’s bad almost everywhere where people have money, then it will be a simpler choice for people to make the decision to buy codes to sell on the forums. Thus increasing supply and lowering the price.
And btw, a simple look at the Bazaar will show that WTS threads are being sold out within minutes of being posted, almost regardless of the price, this is a HUGE indicator that supply is lower than demand.
Edward Sarum
18. Sep, 2008
If you turly believe that a free market economy does not have scammers and speculators that drive the price upward then you live in a bubble. Oh sure there are regulations and rules to stop this but they are never able to do so completely and that is in essence what you are crying for here, a perfect solution.
I do think there is recoruse right now to some level for scammers. If I am correct CCP will return ISK if the person making the sale fails to deliver the product, for example they take you money and never send you a code.
As for the scammers that infate the price that is easy enough to see. All it takes is a little common sense. Perhaps what we need is not additional regulation but an outside review source, sort of like ebay. An outside site that monitors GTC sales and has buyers write reviews about the sellers. The sellers get a rating and the buyers can then use this to decide if they want to buy or not.
Owin Forsyth
18. Sep, 2008
20% of the game time cards used to be purchased by people who worked for Lehman Brothers in New York and London. They worked so many hours each week that they didn’t have time to grind for isk. Purchasing and selling game time cards gave them more time to pew pew pew. Which is all that anyone working for Lehman Brothers wanted to do. Can anyone visualize a Lehman trader making a high 6 figure income actually mining with a Hulk?
A few days ago, Lehman filed for bankruptcy protection as most of us probably heard, and these high income employees who were paid mostly by bonuses and stock options are in an unusual position, they’re financially broke. So, no more buying time cards for isk anymore, they don’t have the money. Some are actually mining to buy time cards, since they have a lot of free time now.
Of course I made all of this up. But it could be true. Who knows, there are no stats on who buys time cards, who sells them, how many are sold within any sort of time frame. Without facts and figures, there is speculation. And speculation is just a fancy word for guessing, which is all that anyone can do without information.
Anon
18. Sep, 2008
This is how the GTC market works:
– GTC Sellers are a front for ISK sellers. They are actually the ISK sellers themselves buying GTC’s bulk from CCP at rebate prices FROM the proceeds of, yes you guessed it – ISK Selling!
– For each GTC they sell to another player, they make a small buck, the rest goes to CCP.
– For other GTC’s they play EVE at rebate value themselves, and gather isk with that money, which they in turn sell, to buy more GTC in bulk to sell for isk that they then re-sell for cold hard cash to other players.
– If the demand is lower, GTC prices go up. About 6000 alt accounts were closed when CCP changed the GTC prices. This means GTC re-sellers need to make more money somehow, which they do by pushing up the prices of GTCs-for-isk which they then sell.
– Since it is a market based on demand, prices will keep going up until either the demand is satisfied and it stables out, or ISK sellers are forced to buy less and less GTC in bulk and raising the prices artificially until the proceeds they can shave off in this chain are acceptable.
It’s a nice circle of life, where you shave off the cream at the top and you effectively control the whole market because you shave some cents off in every part of the chain.
Or … at least that’s how I’d do it.
ShardowRhino
18. Sep, 2008
Owin, hahah, good stuff there:). I seriously never thought of people that were barely skimming by off of their paycheck would really consider ever buying a GTC for isk. While its entirely possible,chances are those selling several gtcs at once are not hurting as bad as most people due to the shake up in the economy. If so then they would have to be moronic to consider buying several GTCs at $36 a pop. If someone can do such then they are simply not hurting enough to even suggest that they NEED 100+mil more then what a GTC should be worth. They are merely jacking up the prices and using such as a shield.
Of course I don’t believe the economy is truly to blame for the rise in the prices of GTCs. As I mentioned, oil prices have dropped which means gasoline prices have dropped. That means the price of goods will also start to drop accordingly since the price of goods went up because transportation costs went up with the gas prices which went up because of the oil price. That increase in the price of oil was due to what? A shortage? No it was based off of nothing but speculation. Bush proved that by taking pen to paper and overturning laws banning drilling for oil off the shores of the U.S.
That right there causes me to believe that the price of GTCs is due to speculation, dirty GTC sellers saying anything to pump buyers for more isk for less game time, as well as competition from the gold farmers. Worst of all there is absolutely NO regulations from CCP on how GTCs are sold. The only thing we have is a safe transaction. Thats protecting the customer from being ripped off but it has nothing to do with keeping speculation and outright lies from raising the price of a gtc.
That brings me to Edward’s comments. Am I asking for a perfect solution? Perhaps but that “perfect solution” wouldn’t be the most monumental task CCP has ever taken on. As I mentioned, I want CCP to verify that a gtc does in fact exist in the hands of a player starting a thread, to sell the gtc. CCP would confirm to the rest of us that the GTC does in fact exist by giving the seller permission to post. CCP would have nothing to do with the price the seller sets.
CCP would also verify that the transaction did in fact go through. That would prove to everyone that someone out there was willing to pay x amount of isk for the timecode. Once people can see evidence of actual transactions it would create an informed buyer. It would also help create competition between the GTC sellers. With that taking place we would start to see a balance being struck that is benificial and fair to both parties.
If CCP were to also force players to choose to use only 1 alt in their account to post on the forum, people could start looking at those who have sold and bought a gtc, to some degree. Being able to look up a particular player’s bio in game might help bring a bit more credibility to the gtc trade. Personally I would prefer if CCP simply changed the forums so that the highest SP character on any given account is the only one that can be used to post.
Some people attempt to mock the idea of asking CCP to take some responsibility beyond making sure someone is not directly scammed in a gtc trade. What they need to do is ensure players are not being indirectly scammed out of isk in gtc trade by eliminating the possibility of fake threads and trades.
I also find it amusing that people have mocked the idea of having ccp step in and lay out some regulations,checks and balances to the GTC trade. Then suggest that its equal to crying to the government about things. Well, considering the economic news, there is an obvious need for at least SOME regulations. Lending people hundreds of thousands of dollars when they bring in no more then a worker at mcdonalds is utterly irresponsible. People did so because they saw potential profits but didn’t see the possible and quite obvious negative aspect of doing such. Its unlikely any of this would have happened or at least on such a scale if people weren’t so damn greedy and left to their own devices without the least bit of regulations.
RodRye
21. Sep, 2008
The number of sellers has dropped quite a margin in the last few months. The number of buyers has risen (more people ingame have spare isk)
Isk farmers do not SELL GTCs, they buy them, using their farmed isk (which they have plenty of so why would they shell out $$ for it ?). Look at all the threads where ‘agfhghs’ buys a GTC for ‘tsdgh’ and ‘ikjiok’. If you use eve-search to trace these back you will find some ‘individuals’ are buying GTCs for hundreds of accounts, which then if they get banned for isk selling or macroing, simply return to the forums to add time to their new farming account. Since the removal of the 30 day cards (the favourite with accounts that were banned commonly) they now lose up to 60 days if banned. Necessitating the purchase of another 60 days to start their new farming account.
People in game are richer too, as they have been getting so for years, many older players already have their super caps and have nothing else to spend their incomes on so may as well play for free.
In no way is the price of GTCs in any way CCP’s responsibility, believe what you like about forum threads, but from what I can tell 99.9% of them are perfectly legitimate when a transaction occurs. The only non-legit actions happening are from the people who are buying hundreds of accounts worth of game time, and are obviously not playing them all at the keyboard.
The prices will continue to go up until people stop paying the prices asked, or the supply is greater than the demand. The demand from macroers and isk farmers is not going to go away unless the price reaches ridiculous costs (say 3b/60days !). So the only hope is that their lives become unprofitable or some new content is released that makes everyone want to buy GTCs to sell for isk again.
ShardowRhino
22. Sep, 2008
Again thanks for the comments, agree or disagree with my point, its still welcome. One of my goals is to get people thinking and then talking about the topics. My goal is obvious NOT to get everyone on board with what I say, that is impossible except for the easiest possible topics.
RodRye, initially I was going to respond to your comment here. However I added more to the reply. So much that it could have been taken as going off topic yet remaining on topic at the same time. There was another aspect of the gtc issue that I didn’t go over in this article for a few reasons. But after spending a lot of time considering the various comments here and eve-o I’ll be fleshing out that aspect in a follow up or add on article.
I expect it to be completed in a day or two depending on my free time. Everyone should feel free to check back within that time. I’ll post on eve-o as a notification as well but without the normal level of interaction I like when I put out a new article. I think that would be the best way to approach a follow up article as its not a completely new topic. We’ll see though;)
Again,everyone,thanks for reading and dropping a line…paragraph or two. I personally enjoy the feedback. It shows that the EVE population isn’t as detached to the game they say they love as other communities I have seen. I also appreciate the detail people are going into in order to put their point of view across, again it doesn’t matter if you agree or not as long as you are thinking and interacting… at least thats how i see things.
~Rhino
Drefsab
01. Oct, 2008
Its simply supply and demand, I sell several GTC’s each month, when I get a card to sell I honestly am not thinking about how to give a buyer a “fair deal”. Instead im thinking how much isk can I make for me REAL money I spent. Now some may consider this greedy but thats what eve’s about.
Take for example the other night I had 4 cards to sell I set my price at 500mil, there were about 10 people in channel shouting WTB etc at prices below what I wanted, so I just posted once ever 20 / 30 mins a WTS @ 500 and I sold them all. If I had been impatent and sold to those there and then I would be 400mil poorer.
I find the idea of fake alt’s posting buy order’s laughable though, because while wont deny its possible some poeple are doing it I dont see what lasting effect it could really have. IF people post the price to high people wont buy, it doesnt matter if there are fake posts saying they will take those deals if you dont buy for that then the seller ether has to lower his prices to get sales or go with unsold cards.
So why arnt there so many people with unsold cards? because real people are buying them. The fact the prices are hovering around the 500mil mark (seen regualar prices – and + 50mil of this), means there are enough people buying at that price to keep up with the supply. Over supply will see sellers undercutting each other to get the sale. Under supply see’s sellers putting prices up because of the increased demand. Its basic economics.
If you really are unhappy with it then you should stop getting GTC’s, stop paying the current prices and switch to ether direct payment or cancel some alts for a bit.
roger
06. Oct, 2008
I think it is simple supply and demand Rhino!
although I do think all macro farmers need taking down where can you get info about taking them down?